NEPI Rockcastle’s Retailers Day in Zagreb!
ING economists Valentin Tataru and Bert Colijn delivered sharp, high-energy analyses on how today’s geopolitical turmoil is reshaping economies and consumer confidence across the globe.
Bert Colijn kicked things off with a clear-eyed view:
🌎 The Middle East crisis continues to push inflation higher – but this time we expect the impact to be more muted than the 2022 surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
🌎 In the US, the economy is still expanding, powered by massive AI investments, while the rest of the economy is seeing much weaker investment activity.
🌎 Affluent Americans are spending strongly, but the broader population is feeling the pressure: wage growth is lagging inflation and petrol prices have risen more sharply than in Europe.
🌎 European consumers also struggle but have built a bit of a buffer against the current inflation spike with high savings rates.
Colijn closed on an optimistic note: AI investment has the potential to reverse weakening productivity growth in the US and Europe, but the timing and impact of the improvements remain hotly contested.
“AI is the thing to watch,” he said. “You need a strong stomach to do business right now. Don’t let the relentless headlines turn you into a deer in the headlights – interesting times are ahead for those who stay focused.”
Valentin Tataru then zoomed in on CEE, where NEPI Rockcastle operates:
🌎 The region’s economies are maturing, with diverging performance across markets, yet regional GDP growth continues to outpace the EU-27 average.
🌎 CEE is more energy-intensive than Western Europe due to its industrial base — a clear vulnerability in the current crisis.
🌎 The post-EU accession “catch-up” story has been remarkable, but the easy convergence phase is now over.
🌎 Consumer confidence in CEE has proven surprisingly resilient. Demand is holding up well in Czechia and Poland in particular — sentiment is moderating, but not breaking.
🌎 However, spending is uneven: consumers are holding back on big-ticket items like home goods and refurbishments.
🌎 Inflation varies significantly across the region, with Romania recording the highest rate and seeing negative real wage growth, while other CEE markets continue to deliver positive real wage growth.
Powerful insights that reinforce both the challenges and the opportunities ahead.
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